Federal elections 2025 – Poll: SPD members skeptical about Scholz’s new candidacy

According to a study by Forsa, only a third of SPD members believe that Chancellor Olaf Scholz should again be the SPD’s candidate for chancellor in the 2025 federal elections. Sixty-six percent of respondents believed that the SPD would have a better chance of achieving good results with another candidate, according to the survey by the Meinungsforschungsinstitut für das Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

A third of SPD members believe the party would have a better chance with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. The SPD achieved its worst result in a national vote in the European elections in early June, with 13.9 percent.

Forsa interviewed 1,001 SPD members for the survey, which the institute says represents a representative cross-section of the SPD membership. The party had a total of 365,190 members at the beginning of the year, according to its own statements. The survey was conducted between July 8 and 12, 2024, after the coalition leaders had reached an agreement on the 2025 budget.

According to Forsa, it is possible to survey a representative cross-section of SPD members because Forsa’s continuous measurement of political opinions annually surveys over 120,000 eligible voters. SPD members who have given their consent for the survey to be repeated can now be approached again.

Scholz himself is convinced that he will be a candidate for the SPD chancellorship again in the upcoming elections. In an interview with the ARD in June, he answered the question of whether he was certain of this, despite the criticism, with an almost affirmative “Yes”. The SPD minister chairman of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil, said after the European elections that Scholz was “the undisputed number one” of the party. According to him, “all relevant factions within the SPD” agree that “we will enter the next election campaign with Olaf Scholz”.

Is the SPD in a serious crisis or is it a temporary mood swing?

Fifty-one percent of respondents said the SPD was in a serious crisis. Forty-six percent saw it as a temporary mood swing.

A majority of 55 percent of SPD members believe that their party should follow a centrist political course. Forty-three percent, on the other hand, believe that it would be better if the SPD returned to a more left-leaning political profile.

Fifty-five percent of SPD members are very satisfied or satisfied with Scholz’s work as Chancellor. Forty-five percent are less or not satisfied. The vast majority of SPD members (79 percent) are satisfied with Lars Klingbeil’s work as SPD chairman. Twenty percent are less or not satisfied.

Only a small minority of 12 percent of SPD members believe that the party can achieve a result of more than 25 percent in the next federal election, such as in 2021. Thirty-seven percent expect a result between 20 and 25 percent. However, half of SPD members expect a result below 20 percent in the next federal election.

1. The debate over the SPD candidate for the 2025 European elections in Berlin is gaining momentum.
2. A survey by Redaction Network Germany shows that Boris Pistorius may be a better choice for the SPD in the European election crisis.
3. Despite the poll results, Olaf Scholz, the current SPD candidate for Chancellor, remains confident about his role in Germany’s upcoming federal elections.
4. Critics claim that the SPD is currently in crisis. A Forsa survey found that 51% believe the party is in a serious crisis.
5. Boris Pistorius, who was seen as a potential force within the SPD, won the support of a third of party members in the European election poll.
6. The survey also found that a majority of 55% believe the SPD should maintain a central political profile during the elections, while 43% prefer a more left-wing approach.
7. In the context of the European election crisis, the survey results have sparked discussions about whether the SPD should rethink its political strategy ahead of the 2025 German federal elections.

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