photo: elements.envato.com

New EU sanctions, which increase sectoral economic restrictions against the regime, also affect ordinary Belarusians. The ban on crossing the border in cars with Belarusian license plates significantly reduces people’s mobility. The flow of luxury cars from Europe to Russia via Belarus does not stop, but only grows. In contrast to these restrictions, Lukashenko introduces a new temporary visa-free regime for 35 European countries. This “gesture of goodwill” is intended to shift the focus from not meeting the demands of Poland and China to stop the migration pressure at the border.

The recently adopted new EU sanctions package against Belarus includes a regulation banning the import of cars from Belarus to the EU. Poland, following the instructions, allows cars with Belarusian registration to cross the border only if the owner is present. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have banned the import of vehicles with Belarusian license plates.

In this regard, the leader of the democratic forces, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, called on the leadership of Poland and the Baltic countries to solve the issue of closing the borders for Belarusian cars, including by easing restrictions. However, the negotiations have not yet yielded any results.

Meanwhile, despite the sanctions, luxury cars are still being imported into Russia via Belarus. In July, for example, 16 carriages with luxury cars were transported. Among them were Lamborghini Urus S, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche, Ferrari, Bentley Motors and Rolls-Royce. The total value of the cars is estimated at over 18 million dollars.

The main route for these transports is: Griva (Latvia) – Orsha-Zapadnaya (Belarus). The shipper and forwarder on the Latvian railway is ALPIK CARGO. The main recipient is the company SZAO “Energo-Oil,” which is associated with the Belarusian businessman Aleksin, close to Lukashenka. Other logistics options are also being developed, such as via Kazakhstan.

The situation is formally explained by the fact that new sanctions prohibit the import of cars into Belarus with a ground clearance (the distance from the bottom of the car to the road) of 165 mm or more and an engine capacity of more than 1.9 liters. EU countries have not agreed on a ban on the import of luxury cars into Belarus. However, the new restrictions do not apply to transactions carried out until October 2, 2024 (if they were completed before July 1, 2024), or to additional transactions necessary for the implementation of the above transactions.

In response to the de facto export embargo on a wide range of goods to Belarus, the regime introduced a temporary visa-free regime for citizens of 35 European countries from July 19 to December 31, 2024. Visa-free entry, exit and stay in the country is allowed through all road and rail checkpoints, and the existing entry regime through land checkpoints for citizens of Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other countries remains in place. Officially, the move was taken “to further demonstrate the openness and peaceful nature of our country, adherence to the principles of good neighborliness, as well as to simplify people-to-people contacts and improve freedom of movement.”

However, the initiative can be seen as an asymmetric response to the demands of Poland and China to stop the migration pressure on the Belarusian-Polish border. The new Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou has already stated that Warsaw will not be able to blackmail Minsk by blocking freight traffic across the border. He called the claims groundless and accused Poland of acting against the interests of the European Union, urging Warsaw to enter into a respectful dialogue. According to him, Belarus will not make concessions under the pressure of ultimatums and will defend its interests. Therefore, Minsk expects that Warsaw will eventually be forced to cooperate, as it cannot continue to blackmail Minsk for long by blocking freight flows that affect the interests of the entire EU, China and Poland’s economic interests.

Minsk is thus trying to shift responsibility for the situation at the border onto Poland’s reluctance to engage in dialogue. The regime is trying to replace compliance with Warsaw’s demands with a “gesture of goodwill” in the form of another visa-free regime and is planning a comprehensive briefing on this issue in the fall with the participation of law enforcement agencies and international organizations.