The recent order to withdraw troops from the borders with Ukraine confirms the Belarusian leader’s decision not to join the Russian war, fearing the possible consequences that could result from it.

On July 13, 2024, the Belarusian state news agency Belta published a video and statements by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko released during a meeting in the Southern Operational District. The discussion was about the country’s military security and was held in the company of the highest commanders of the Belarusian Armed Forces. In the video, the Belarusian leader ordered the withdrawal of military forces in the south of the country, close to the Ukrainian borders, in response to the withdrawal of troops by the Ukrainian side. He also stated, and also reported the statements of the Ministry of Defense, that Belarus has no tensions with Ukraine. These statements appear to be an attempt by the Belarusian leader to ease tensions with Ukraine, caused by his strong ties with Vladimir Putin and the role Belarus has played since the beginning of the Russian invasion.

In fact, in the first days of the launch of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia used military bases in Gomel, located in the southern part of Belarus, to attack and invade Ukraine from its northern borders in an attempt to reach Kiev. The role of Belarus was revealed by Lukashenko in March 2022 when, in a video published by Belta, he “accidentally” revealed the plans for an invasion of Ukraine. The video showed a map of part of the Belarusian territory from which the Russian army began its operations to penetrate Ukrainian territory. Nevertheless, in another statement, Lukashenko stated that his country would not join the “Special Military Operation” conducted by Russia and has repeatedly reiterated this decision over the years. The reasons for this are different.

Belarus has neither the military capabilities nor the demographic conditions that would allow it to compensate for any losses of life resulting from a military conflict.

The country’s military personnel amounts to 263,000 members, of which only 63,000 are active. The remaining part consists of 145,000 reserve personnel and 55,000 paramilitary units. Air Forces have a total of 183 aircraft and it is estimated that only 101 are ready for use. Land Forces have a total of 7756 vehicles⁽¹⁾ and the Belarusian army can use only 5248 units. Moreover, a military operation requires enormous economic resources to mobilize the army and its vehicles.

The country’s population has one of the lowest growth rates in Europe and a war and its consequences could further exacerbate this downward trend.

Ultimately, the failure of initial Russian expectations about the conflict could have convinced Lukashenko that entering the war was not an option.

The people of Belarus would not accept their country joining the Russian war against Ukraine because of the historical and cultural ties with the neighboring country. In a November 2023 poll conducted by Chatnam House, 26% of respondents said they would not support the “Special Military Operation”. 19% of respondents said they would support it. 27% of respondents answered “don’t know”. Any participation in the war would cause enormous tensions in Belarusian society that could, in the worst case, degenerate into a civil war. Moreover, the 2020 elections saw huge clashes against the election results, which were considered fraudulent by poll workers and members of the opposition. The Belarusian leader brutally suppressed the protests, even with Russian help, and managed to retain power.

The presence of Belarusian volunteers who fought in the Ukrainian army could have strongly influenced the decision of the Belarusian leader. Volunteers are part of military regiments under the control of the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, whose commander is Kyrilo Budanov. Among the Belarusian regiments, the most important are the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment and the Belarusian Volunteer Corps.

Their military experience and knowledge of the territory of Belarus could be an incredible source of trouble for the Belarusian army. Moreover, there could be an invisible network of spies in the country, ready to strike and undermine the military capabilities of the army and its transport logistics.

Despite his strong dependence on Putin, Lukashenko also stated in the meeting of July 13 that he would talk to him about Ukraine and the possibility of peace talks. During these years, he has repeatedly expressed his hope that the conflict would end as soon as possible, despite not criticizing his ally and its military operations. A de-escalation with Ukraine could also be interpreted as an attempt by the Belarusian leader to look for an alternative way out in case the situation does not go well for Russia. In this way, from his point of view, he could avoid possible accusations from Ukraine and Western countries that they played an active role in the conflict.

⁽¹⁾ The types of vehicles included are tanks, self-armored vehicles, self-propelled artillery, towed artillery and MLRS (rocket artillery).