Israel’s relentless military assault on civilians in Gaza has not only drawn much of Western Asia into an expanding war front, but has also led to significant geopolitical shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean, which now includes the sleepy island of Cyprus.

At the same time, there is a risk that the escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon will expand the conflict into a larger, multi-regional conflict.

On June 19, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah sternly warned that any Israeli attempt to use airfields and ports in southern Cyprus to attack Lebanese territory would result in these locations being considered legitimate military targets by the Lebanese resistance.

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides wisely attempted to allay Lebanon’s concerns, downplaying any claims about Nicosia’s cooperation with Tel Aviv, simply saying that Cyprus “is not involved in any way.” But late last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan revealed the existence of intelligence reports indicating that Greek Cyprus was helping Israel and its Western allies by serving as an operational base for operations in Gaza.

The Cyprus Gap: Historical Context

Cyprus remains divided into two separate parts: the north is administered by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which declared independence on 15 November 1983 following the Turkish military intervention in 1974; the south is administered by the Republic of Cyprus, which is internationally recognised but referred to as the Greek Cypriot Administration by Turkiye.

As a former British protectorate, the UK has retained control of two base areas in Cyprus – Akrotiri and Dhekelia – sovereign British territories under the 1960 Treaty of Establishment. These bases serve as strategic assets for the UK, particularly for military operations and listening posts in Western Asia.

Both British bases are regularly used by the US and UK to transfer weapons to Israeli air bases. The Akrotiri base is most famous for being used by British fighter jets to attack Yemen. The base is also reportedly part of British efforts to support Israel in its war on Gaza.

The Treaty of Guarantee, signed on 16 August 1960 by Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, and drawn up to guarantee the independence, territorial integrity and security of the Republic, plays a crucial role in defining Turkey’s rights and responsibilities in relation to Cyprus.

In the event of a breach of the provisions of the treaty, the foreign guarantors must consult each other to determine the necessary measures. If joint action is not possible, each guarantor reserves the right to take unilateral action to restore the state of affairs as defined in the treaty.

This treaty provision was invoked by Turkey during its intervention in Cyprus in 1974. According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Ankara’s intervention “blocked the path to the annexation of the island by Greece, stopped the persecution of Turkish Cypriots and brought peace to Cyprus.”

As a guarantor power, Turkey continues to prioritize the security of the entire island, despite the current division of Cypriot administration.

A decade of diplomatic shifts

Since 2010, Turkey’s foreign policy has undergone a significant transformation, largely influenced by the political Islam that characterized two decades of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule. This shift has led to increased tensions between Turkey and Israel and has at times affected their bilateral relations, although business has continued as usual despite Erdogan’s pro-Palestinian rhetoric.

The Mavi Marmara incident on May 31, 2010 was a major turning point. Israeli forces intercepted a flotilla attempting to break the economic blockade of Gaza, resulting in the deaths of nine Turkish human rights activists. The fiasco caused a serious diplomatic crisis, leading to reduced diplomatic, military and economic cooperation between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

In the wake of deteriorating relations with Turkey, Israel sought to strengthen its ties with Greece and southern Cyprus. This strategic reorientation manifested itself in joint military exercises, which heralded a new era of cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Notable exercises include the Onisilos-Gideon exercises, which involve air maneuvers and naval operations. Israel and Southern Cyprus have also signed several defense agreements, which facilitate intelligence sharing and counterterrorism cooperation. For example, Cypriot forces have participated in counterterrorism training in Israel, and the two neighbors have coordinated their responses to security threats.

Recognizing the strategic value of this level of cooperation, the US supported the trilateral partnership between Israel, Greece and Southern Cyprus. This led to the creation of the ‘3+1’ mechanism, which formalized cooperation between these countries and the US.

In 2019, the US Congress passed the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act, which aims to strengthen energy security and defense cooperation between the trio. A notable development came in September 2020, when the US partially lifted the arms embargo on Cyprus, which had been in place since November 1987.

On June 17, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos to announce the launch of a strategic dialogue between the two countries. The first meeting is scheduled for fall 2024 in Cyprus.

Geopolitical implications and Turkey’s response

The Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline, a major joint geopolitical project, further illustrates the strategic cooperation between Israel, Greece and Southern Cyprus, in addition to Egypt. The pipeline is designed to transport natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe and aims to reduce dependence on Russian gas and improve regional energy security. The project has attracted significant interest and support from Washington, which aligns with its strategic goals in the region.

Now, Nasrallah’s statements toward Cyprus have drawn the attention of other major powers involved in the Eastern Mediterranean power struggle, notably Russia and China. By targeting Cyprus, the weakest member of the 3+1 mechanism, Hezbollah leaders may be seeking to weaken the U.S.-led alliance with diplomatic support from Moscow and Beijing against Israel.

From Turkey’s perspective, the military rapprochement between Southern Cyprus and Israel threatens Cypriot security and may have implications for Turkey’s guarantees. The use of Southern Cyprus ports and airspace by warships and military cargo planes of some EU member states and the US Navy after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood is a source of serious discomfort for Ankara.

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler detailed his government’s position to the official government news agency Anadolu Agency on July 14:

Since October, when the conflict between Israel and Hamas began, we know that military elements of some European states (Germany, France, the Netherlands, etc.) have been deployed to the Greek Cypriot administration under the pretext of civilian evacuation and humanitarian aid. We are also aware that warships of other countries, mainly the US (UK, Greece, Italy, etc.), have used ports of the Greek Cypriot administration. We will continue to take all necessary measures against the activities of the Greek Cypriot administration that disrupt the balance on the island and threaten the security of the TRNC. We are determined to build a future in which our Cypriot brothers live in trust, peace and prosperity, as well as to protect the rights and interests of Turkiye and the TRNC in the Mediterranean. Turkiye will continue to support its Cypriot brothers with the concept of “one nation, two states and one heart” within the framework of the Guarantee and Alliance Treaties, as it has done to this day. It will further develop and continue its efforts to ensure that the Turkish Cypriot people look to the future with confidence and to increase their level of prosperity.

As Guler’s statement shows, Turkey, based on the rights granted by the Treaty of Guarantee, can deploy additional air defense systems and missile defense systems and frigates for air defense warfare in Northern Cyprus to enhance security measures in the Turkish part of the island.

The changing situation in the Eastern Mediterranean, centered on Cyprus, reflects a complex interplay of historical tensions, strategic alliances, and geopolitical ambitions. The stronger ties between Tel Aviv, Athens, and Nicosia, supported by Washington’s increased involvement, could significantly alter the regional balance of power.

In response, Turkey, invoking its rights as a guarantor power under the Treaty of Guarantee, is invoking a possible military build-up in Northern Cyprus to safeguard its interests and those of the Turkish Cypriots.

The situation remains uncertain, as major powers such as Russia and China may play a more active role in the future.

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can prevail or whether the Eastern Mediterranean will face further militarization and instability. Cypriot planners will also have to tread carefully, as they are well aware that the island is firmly on Hezbollah’s radar.