Right-wing Putin defenders have said that Russia will ultimately win the war in Ukraine. They claim that Russia will prevail because they have a larger population, economy, and military than Ukraine. All of that may be true, but what is also true is that the war in Ukraine has turned into an unmitigated disaster for Russia.

Putin’s vanity project to take Ukraine in three days failed miserably. Instead of admitting defeat, Putin doubled down and effectively committed the Russian military to an attrition campaign against Ukraine.

Putin has only succeeded in thinning out the Russian army. Their losses have been nothing short of catastrophic. Undermanned and over-equipped, the Ukrainian army has managed (if the numbers are to be believed) to kill or wound over 560,000 soldiers, destroy over 15,000 artillery systems, 8,000 tanks, 15,000 armored vehicles, and over 22,000 pieces of other ground-based equipment. This amounts to over 60,000 pieces of equipment lost. The Russians also lost 28 ships to a country with no navy. In addition, Russia has lost 361 aircraft and 326 helicopters. Even if these numbers are inflated, halving the estimates of losses would still produce staggering results.

The Russian army has made only minimal progress on the front and is no closer to a breakthrough. The Russians have resorted to using revenge weapons of rockets, glide bombs and drones against Ukrainian civilians to break their spirit. Any student of military history will tell you that revenge weapons only strengthen the resolve of the population.

Putin and his people claim that Russia will not stop fighting until they have conquered all of Ukraine. But this goal is completely unrealistic. They do not have the money or the troops to secure a country of over 37 million people that will be very hostile to a Russian occupation.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Russia sends over a thousand soldiers to get injured or die and loses over a hundred pieces of equipment every day. For their efforts, the Russians take a bombed, non-strategic hamlet or town if they make any progress at all; ergo, the Russian army cannot make much progress and Putin will not retreat because he cannot admit defeat.

By this time next year, Russia will have lost (or could lose), conservatively estimated, another 365,000 soldiers killed or wounded, and at least another 36,500 pieces of equipment of all kinds will have or could have been destroyed. This would bring their troop losses to at least 925,000 wounded or killed by next year. Total equipment losses would be over 96,500. By next year, those levels of troop and equipment losses will become unsustainable.

Putin has crippled the Russian economy in this process for at least a decade, if not longer. He has also created a demographic disaster for Russia. Russia is a demographic time bomb. Even before the war with Ukraine, Russia was losing people. Birth rates have been low for years. Then COVID came along and killed 403,000 Russians. Another 817,000-922,000 have fled Russia since the war in Ukraine began. Add to that over half a million dead and wounded soldiers and you have demographic losses that may never recover. Due to labor shortages and potential civil unrest, Putin cannot fully mobilize the country. He is currently recruiting 30,000 new soldiers per month to become cannon fodder. This will roughly replace the 30,000 or so soldiers who are wounded or killed each month. To make up for the losses, Russia is trying to recruit North Koreans, Africans, Nepalese and others into the Russian military. So far, new troops have arrived only in dribs and drabs.

Russia can’t produce new weapons fast enough to replace losses. They pull old equipment out of mothballs, refurbish it, and send it to the front, only to have it blown up quickly. Putin wants more weapons from North Korea and China. Russia will continue to receive substandard ammunition and other less advanced equipment from North Korea. Russia’s enemy, China, has so far refused to send weapons to Russia, given the expected blowback from the United States and Europe. China knows that they would be targeted with sanctions if they did. And it’s hard to believe that Chinese weapons would tip the balance in Russia’s favor. They are mostly Russian designs that have proven ineffective against Ukrainian defensive measures. Meanwhile, Ukraine is replacing its losses with NATO-standard equipment that has proven highly effective against Russian equipment and logistics. And Ukraine’s “drone army” is destroying Russian military equipment, just as it is destroying Chinese equipment.

The Russian economy is propped up by spending 40% of the national budget on the war in Ukraine. Oil and gas revenues have sustained the war effort in recent years. However, Russia is spending more than it earns. It is running a budget deficit and is draining its sovereign wealth fund (rainy day). Inflation is running at around 9%, and borrowing costs are rising to 17.75%. Cumulative inflation since 2022 is 47.02%. Inflation is the Achilles heel of the Russian economy. Inflation this high usually leads to a severe recession or economic collapse. This is not a healthy economy, and the future does not look bright.

The long-term damage to the Russian economy is significant. Sales of natural gas to Europe will never return, and a new natural gas pipeline to Asia is just a dream. Russia still sells oil, but at a big discount. Russia still has foreign cash reserves, but can’t use most of them because of sanctions.

Other financial sanctions continue to bite. Foreign direct investment in Russia is non-existent, negatively affecting numerous industries. At least a thousand foreign companies have already fled Russia. Russian military sales are in free fall. The performance of Russian equipment compared to NATO-standard equipment is poor, and potential customers have noticed.

China’s trade with Russia is high, and has made Russia dependent on Chinese goods. Nearly 47% of Russian imports come from China, giving China enormous power over the Russian economy. And China charges Russia a premium for its exports, fueling Russian inflation. New sanctions have suspended 80% of trade between Russia and China, which will limit Chinese shipments to Russia.

Putin needs a miracle. He probably hopes that Trump’s victory will be that miracle. But even if Trump is elected, he won’t be able to help Russia in the short term. If elected, he will be sworn in on January 20, 2025. In the meantime, the Pentagon will continue to spend the $61 billion approved by Congress for Ukrainian weapons. European arms shipments will continue, and we shouldn’t be surprised if South Korea starts sending weapons to Ukraine to make up for the potential loss of American support.

So I’ll call it that. The fighting will be over by the summer of 2025 at the latest. Russia will no longer be able to sustain the losses in troops and equipment, and the fighting will culminate. The fighting may be over, but peace does not seem certain if Putin is still in power.

He may threaten to go nuclear, but it will not end well for him. NATO and the world would be forced to respond to a nuclear attack. He does not want war with NATO, but he may get one. Meanwhile, Russia will remain an economic pariah and sanctions will be stepped up, making life miserable for most Russians and eventually causing the Russian economy to collapse. All this destruction, both in Ukraine and in Russia, is meant to soothe the ego of Putin, who will not or cannot admit defeat.

www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/russias-massive-brain-drain-is-ravaging-the-economy-these-stunning-figures-show-why-it-will-soon-be-smaller-than- indonesia/articleshow/103329600.cms

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/central-bank-warns-of-russian-economic-collapse-amid-sanctions/ar-BB1p9cdS?ocid=BingNewsVerp&cvid=c0ab02bc602a43978812d08a271ebb5e&ei=11