The ongoing conflict between the United States, China, and Russia extends beyond a trade war and is a strategic struggle for dominance in several regions, including the Arctic. Despite its historical hegemony, the United States risks losing its position in the Arctic to Russia and China due to its declining influence.

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Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US has wielded considerable influence globally. Nearly three decades later, however, this dominance is being threatened by rising powers and events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. According to neoclassical realist author Fareed Zakaria, we have entered a post-American phase in which new major players have emerged.

While the US is clearly concerned about Russia’s growing power, the rise of China poses an even greater challenge to the established global order. Sino-Russian cooperation is aimed at countering US unilateralism and could potentially usher in a new era of dominance.

Russia and China have developed considerable economic, political, military and technological power, allowing them to expand their global influence through “smart power” strategies that combine hard and soft power elements. Despite the European Union’s alliance with the US, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and Chinese investment complicates decision-making, making Russian and Chinese expansion seem inevitable.

Climate change, despite its severe global impact, offers an opportunity in the Arctic to extract valuable resources such as oil, gas and gemstones. Russia’s favourable location in the Arctic, combined with China’s technological and human resources contributions, strengthens their bilateral relationship.

For the purposes of this discussion, the Arctic is defined as a vast ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere, critical to global energy and trade security. The definition of the Arctic varies, with Russia considering it critical to national security and the European Environment Agency describing it as a vast area covering one-sixth of the Earth’s surface.

In international relations, geopolitics plays a crucial role and influences the political development of states and peoples. Alfred T. Mahan’s Theory of Sea Power from 1890, with its emphasis on maritime dominance, remains relevant for understanding Arctic geopolitics. The geographical conditions of the Arctic region require strategic maritime thinking, with an emphasis on new sea routes and resource extraction.

Russia: The Arctic Power
Russia claims the largest share of the Arctic region due to its extensive territory in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Historically, Russia has maintained a significant Arctic presence, which justifies its claims of sovereignty. Its strategic thinking in the Arctic is well developed, which contributes to its regional influence.

Although not a global power, Russia’s military, technological, and scientific advances allow it to exert considerable influence. These factors, along with its historical Arctic policy, position Russia as a formidable Arctic power.

Climate change has created opportunities for Eurasian powers to compete for control of the Arctic. Russia’s proximity to the Arctic and its extensive Arctic policy, which was implemented during the Soviet era, give it an advantage. President Putin’s government has continued to prioritize Arctic strategy and is promoting cooperation with China to leverage technological and human resources.

China: a semi-arctic country
China, although not bordering the Arctic Ocean, has strategic interests in the region. Recognizing the importance of maritime trade, China is seeking to diversify its routes to ensure energy security and expand its commercial reach. The Polar Silk Road, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, aims to create alternative routes to bypass potential conflicts in the Strait of Malacca.

China’s Arctic strategy, formalized in 2018, emphasizes its interests in accessing Arctic resources and exploiting the Northern Route. As an observer in the Arctic Council since 2013, China has invested in several Arctic projects to improve its image as a global power.

China’s expansionist ambitions are driven by economic, commercial and national security considerations. Diversifying trade routes, particularly through the Arctic, helps mitigate risks associated with potential conflicts in Southeast Asia. The Arctic Silk Road is consistent with China’s goal of maintaining energy security and expanding its geopolitical influence.

China’s diplomatic strategies, focused on South-South cooperation, have promoted alliances with Arctic countries. Russia, with its vast territory and strategic location, is an important ally. Sino-Russian cooperation enhances both countries’ regional and international security, and challenges US dominance.

Conclusions
Geography plays a crucial role in shaping the foreign policies of states. China and Russia, aware of their interdependence, have used their strengths to pursue common goals. The Arctic region’s natural resources and strategic importance make it a focal point for Sino-Russian cooperation.

Russia, as an Arctic nation, has a privileged status in Arctic decision-making, while China, despite being a semi-Arctic nation, has established a significant presence. The Arctic region’s vast oil and natural gas reserves underscore its importance to global energy security.

The Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic is an example of their strategic foresight, combining technological expertise and geopolitical maneuvering. This partnership has the potential to change the global balance of power and position China and Russia as dominant forces in the Arctic and beyond.