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Between now and the fall, Ukraine is expected to fight to stop the Russian advance along a front line stretching more than 1,000 kilometers. It is hoped that weapons and ammunition recently supplied by Western countries will help hold off the Russian forces.

According to US officials, Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in the coming months.

But Kiev, in addition to the situation on the battlefield, is also increasingly concerned about political issues.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been seemingly everywhere in recent months, joining Western partners at every summit, asking attending countries to show leadership, and systematically reaching out to countries in the Global South.

Speaking at the UK’s Blenheim Palace during the season’s final summit, Zelensky said Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to single out individual leaders to “seduce” or “blackmail” them into betraying the rest of his partners and weakening Western unity over support for Ukraine.

“If someone in Europe is trying to solve problems behind the backs of others or even at someone else’s expense, if someone wants to make shady trips to the capital of war – to talk and perhaps promise something that goes against our common interests or at the expense of Ukraine or other countries, why should we consider such a person?”

Indeed, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor, on behalf of many EU diplomats, is playing into Putin’s hands by visiting Moscow and urging a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.

But his plea for Europe to work with the likely next US president Donald Trump to end the war would, for most European leaders, mean leaving Ukraine alone and leaving Europe at risk from Russia’s future ambitions.

It seems that there is a growing realization that the war, as things stand, is unlikely to end in total victory for either Moscow or Kiev.

Now that the war in Russia has been going on for two and a half years, Kiev is working on a plan to end the war on its terms through negotiations.

For the West, this means that Kiev must do everything it can to one day have the best possible starting position for negotiations.

But it is also likely to embolden Moscow to undermine Western unity, to the extent that the support it receives on the battlefield will no longer flow in its favor.

In recent months, two alternative visions of an ending have even been presented.

First, at the peace summit in Switzerland, Ukraine presented its ten-point plan for peace to leaders and dignitaries from more than 90 countries, except Russia.

The second is a ceasefire offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin. But for Ukraine, it would look like a capitulation, as it would be contingent on Kiev abandoning its NATO membership ambitions and withdrawing from the four eastern Ukrainian territories that Russia unilaterally annexed after its full-scale invasion in 2022.

Switzerland supported Ukraine’s “territorial integrity,” but with some countries abstaining, Kiev plans to hold a second meeting in the fall, this time with Russia’s participation, insiders said.

The urgency to find a fair peace settlement before the US elections in November is also high as many believe a new Trump presidency could put Ukraine at a disadvantage.

Trump and Zelenskyy held a phone call on Friday (July 19) to discuss the matter, the first since the former US president left office in 2020.

Trump said that as president he would “bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives” and that both Russia and Ukraine “will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence.”

Zelenskyy said in a statement that he had underscored “the vital support of both parties and both chambers of the United States for protecting the freedom and independence of our nation.”

Both had agreed to “discuss in a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly sustainable,” he added.

Ukraine will find a way to combat Russian forces even if Trump wins a second term and crucial US support is jeopardized, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week.

“Whatever the outcome of the US election,” he said, “we will find solutions.”

GREATER EUROPE

MEDITERRANEAN LETTER | European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would create a separate portfolio for the Mediterranean as part of her next team, a sign that she will pay more attention to the region in her next term.

As Euractiv previously reportedThere have already been rumours of a portfolio split between a mandate for EU candidate countries likely to join in the future and countries considered ‘close neighbours’, such as North Africa and the Middle East.

EPC BATTLE | With some 50 European leaders meeting in the UK this week under the auspices of the European Political Community, it is becoming increasingly clear that the format is struggling to maintain its raison d’être.

EU-UK RESET | Britain’s new Labour government has announced a post-Brexit ‘reset’ with the EU and closer cooperation across Europe to increase support for Ukraine and tackle illegal migration.

WHAT ELSE WE READ

ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK

• EU foreign ministers meet to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East and will exchange views over lunch with European Investment Bank’s Nadia Calviño
  | Monday, July 22, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
• EU Chief Diplomat Borrell Speaks on Gaza at ECFR Event
  | Tuesday, July 23, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Addresses US Congress
  | Wednesday, July 24, 2024 | Washington, United States
• ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet
  | Thursday, July 25, 2024 | Vientiane, Laos
• Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
  | Friday, July 26, 2024 | Paris, France

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(Edited by Alice Taylor)

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