There is an important match coming up in Palermo! Defending champion Qinwen Zheng will face Czech Republic’s Karolina Muchova in the final of the Palermo Ladies Open. We are well aware of it by Muchova’s threat on the dirt, but Zheng is in red-hot form this year. Who will have the last laugh in this thrilling encounter?

Qinwen Zheng has reached the final of the Australian Open this year. In addition, she has already made it to the QF twice in her previous tournament this season. On the other hand, Muchova has not played much this season, but in her three tournaments this season she has now reached one QF and final. Now it is time for them to step up to the bigger occasion and turn the longer runs into winning runs.

Qinwen Zheng vs. Karolina Muchova: Preview

Zheng will enter this competition having won her previous four competitions matches in this tournament. Interestingly enough, she did not lose a set in Palermo. In her last match she defeated French Diane Parry 7-5, 6-4. Qinwen Zheng hit 3 aces and made only 2 double faults. She won 85% of her first serve and 67% of her second serve. In addition, the Chinese tennis player also scored 3/5 in the break points and saved 3 out of 4.

SO So far this year, Qinwen Zheng has hit 177 aces and made 124 double faults. She has won 74.7% of her service games and 33.6% of her return games.

Karolina Muchova, on the other hand, has shown considerable resilience in her previous matches in Palermo. She defeated her Romanian opponent, Irina-Camelia Begu, in the SF 6-1, 6-1. Muchova hit only 4 aces in that match and committed only one double fault. She won 77% of her first to serve, and 60% of her second serve. On break points she scored 5/6 and did not lose a single one. What are her overall numbers this season?

Muchova has hit 12 aces and made 7 double faults in the 2024 tournament. The 27-year-old Czech tennis player has won 83.3% of her service games and 25% of her return games.

Zheng vs Muchova: Head-to-Head

So far they have only met once in their careers. That was in the R64 at the 2022 Madrid Openwhere Muchova defeated Qinwen Zheng 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. Looking at their epic clash, Muchova hit 5 aces and committed only 2 double faults in the match while Zheng managed to hit just 1. The Chinese player hit 4 double faults and won 63% of her first serves and 58% of her second serves while the Czech player managed to win 68% and 45% respectively. Zheng converted 3 out of her 13 break points while Muchova converted 3 out of her 5 break point opportunities.

Prediction: Zheng to win this match in three sets

It’s world number 7 against world number 35, 2024 AO finalist against 2023 finalist French Open finalist! This gives us a hint as to the magnitude of this heavyweight clash. While Muchova is a real threat on this surface, Zheng’s incredible form this season will give her a slight edge in this matchup. The Chinese tennis player has a 23-12 win-loss record this season, compared to just 6-2 for the Czech.

Apart from that, Muchova has lost three of the four tour finals she has played in her career. Qinwen Zheng, on the other hand, has won her last nine matches here in Palermo. She will now be eager to win another title at this venue. It will be Zheng’s aggressive baseline play against Muchova’s exceptional variety. Zheng likes to hit the ball early and control the match from the baseline. She has a powerful serve and an equally vicious forehand.

Muchova comes with an intelligent game, supported by powerful groundstrokes from both wings with both her forehand and backhand. She can hit winners from any position and can disguise her opponent with incredible drop shots. Her excellent drop shots could be very effective against Qinwen Zheng, as the Chinese often takes her heavy topspin forehand from far behind the baseline. However, the clay court in Palermo is relatively faster than other clay courts, which could suit Zheng’s style of play.

Looking at these statistics and their current form, I would take the Chinese in Palermo ahead of the Czechs.