The US’s ambitious plan to produce Patriot missiles in Japan for Ukraine may have suffered a setback at a crucial moment.

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Reuters reported, citing four unidentified sources, that a shortage of a key Boeing part is delaying a U.S. proposal to use Japanese factories to ramp up production of Patriot surface-to-air missiles.

Two Japanese government officials and two industry sources who spoke to the publication noted that the Japanese manufacturer, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), already produces about 30 PAC-3 missiles annually under license from defense contractor Lockheed Martin, with a capacity to produce up to 60.

The United States wants to ramp up production as quickly as possible, from about 500 units a year to more than 750 units a year worldwide, including Japan. However, government and industry insiders said that expansion in Japan would not be possible without additional shipments of the missile seekers that guide the missiles in their final seconds of flight.

An industry source who asked not to be named told Reuters: “It could take several years for MHI to increase production” because of the shortage.

Furthermore, the seeker shortage problem is not expected to abate anytime soon. To increase production by 30 percent, Boeing last year began building new lines at its seeker facility in the U.S. However, these lines will not come into service until 2027.

Lockheed Martin plans to increase the number of Patriot interceptors it produces in the United States from 500 to 650 by 2027. The unit cost of these missiles is $4 million and reports suggest production will increase by 100 missiles per year.

Notably, the Reuters report stressed that even if the seekers were available, MHI would need to ramp up capacity to expand Japan’s annual PAC-3 production to more than 60.

The Japanese government announced in its 2022 defense spending target that it would provide financial support to defense industries that want to increase production. However, these incentives only apply to weapons intended for the country’s self-defense forces and not to exports.

Japan’s production problems highlight how difficult it is for Washington to connect the industrial support of its international partners with its complex supply chains. Even with the help of its closest allies, the U.S. has struggled to meet Ukraine’s need for weapons, particularly air defense systems that can ward off Russian attacks, because of supply chain bottlenecks.

Japan’s failure to increase production would undermine Washington’s broader plans for expansion, given the global surge in need for Patriot missile defense systems and Ukraine’s steadily growing demand for PAC interceptors. In April, for example, the U.S. announced it would deliver Patriot air defense missile systems to Ukraine as part of a $6 billion extra military aid package.

Earlier this month, it was decided that the United States, Germany and Romania would send more Patriot batteries to Ukraine, and that the Netherlands and other countries would send additional Patriot components to complete another battery. Ukraine’s demand for advanced Patriot batteries and ammunition has increased as Russian airstrikes intensify.

Russia, in turn, has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Kiev, targeting its energy infrastructure in hopes of weakening its war capabilities.

Amid growing demand, it was previously thought that Japan would bolster US firepower to help Ukraine indirectly, prompting fierce warnings from the Kremlin, raising concerns that Tokyo would eventually back down.

It’s almost intriguing that the blow Japan took to increase its involvement in Patriot production came not from an angry Moscow, but from a major American contractor.

Japan’s Patriot missile & Russian anger

Following a change in arms export rules, Japan announced in December last year that it would transfer its Patriot air defense missiles to the United States. Analysts said the missiles would then be diverted to Ukraine.

Previously, Tokyo restricted the export of licensed equipment and components to the country that holds the manufacturing license. However, the new regulations also allow the shipment of finished goods.

Tokyo’s ban on military exports is expected to be relaxed, making it easier for the US and other European countries to arm Ukraine.

The US and Japan have been discussing ways to bolster support for Ukraine for nearly a year. In June of last year, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Asian country was considering supplying Ukraine with 155mm artillery shells under a 2016 pact.

Japan was warned by Russia over concerns that Japanese Patriot missiles could arrive in Ukraine. Russian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Japan Nikolay Stanislavovich Nozdrev threatened Tokyo with dire consequences and punitive measures if Patriot missile systems made in Japan under license from the United States ended up in Ukraine in March of this year.

Nozdrev warned that since Tokyo eased export restrictions late last year, Moscow would be closely monitoring the destination of Japanese arms transfers. He said Russia would be looking for possible shipments of Patriot missile systems and missiles made in Japan under license from the US to Ukraine via the US.

“Therefore, we will ensure that the delivered Patriots do not end up in Ukraine, because if that happens, it will have the most serious consequences for bilateral (Russia-Japan) relations, including our retaliatory measures,” RIA quoted the ambassador as saying.

Currently, there is no data available on the possible transfer of Patriot missiles from Japan to the US. Given the scarcity of seekers, it is unlikely that Japan will contribute to the increased production of Patriot interceptors in the coming years.