The word negotiation is still viewed with some suspicion by Ukrainian citizens. It was put in a drawer and the key thrown away during months of resistance and counterattack against the Russian invasion. Nor was it on the government’s lips every day. But two and a half years after the start of the war, it is beginning to be heard, even if it is the final stage of a process that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fully immersed himself in. The Ukrainian leader, together with his cabinet, led by Andrii Yermak, and the diplomatic work of his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, wants to accelerate the next steps on his road map ahead of a second peace summit, with possible Russian representation, expected before the end of the year.

If this plan succeeds, negotiations will inevitably follow. It is a difficult puzzle to solve at a complicated time for the Ukrainian army, which is under great pressure in the Donetsk sector, and a citizenry that may not be on the same page as the government: according to a survey conducted by the Razumkov Center, only 44% of Ukrainians believe it is time to negotiate. 61% would not give in to something Russia demands a priori, such as ceding territory, and 84% are not ready to hand over occupied provinces to Moscow. Furthermore, 51% said that a minimum condition for dialogue is the restoration of Ukraine’s borders to their 1991 borders, a red flag for the Kremlin. Sixty-six percent said they believed a military victory was still possible.

After several international meetings at ministerial or advisory level on security issues in Copenhagen, Jeddah, Malta and Davos, Zelenskiy’s goal for this year, at least publicly, was to reach the peace summit held in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, on June 15-16. And he succeeded. The communiqué, which currently has 87 signatures in support, provided for progress on three of the 10 points of the Ukrainian president’s peace plan (the so-called Zelenskiy formula): energy security — including regaining control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — food security and, finally, the exchange of prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children held by the Russian authorities.

In Switzerland, Zelenskiy went a step further, expressing his desire to hold a second meeting later this year to move forward toward a “just peace.” Kiev is eyeing the rising poll numbers of Republican candidate Donald Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, who opposes maintaining aid to Ukraine. At a news conference on Monday, Zelenskiy laid out the steps leading up to the new conference, a road map that includes a meeting in Qatar in July or early August to discuss energy; another in August, to be held in Turkey, on free access to grain trade through Black Sea waters; and a third meeting in Canada in September on the return of prisoners of war and minors deported to Russia.

If there is success on those three points, the president has asked his team to have a plan ready by November (the month of the US presidential election) with the rest of his peace formula, with a view to holding a second summit, with an additional provision: “I think that representatives of Russia should be present,” Zelenskyy said on Monday. It would be during this hypothetical meeting that the withdrawal of Russian troops and the cessation of hostilities would be discussed.

This diplomatic framework, however, is exposed to what is happening on the front lines. “Unfortunately,” Serhii Kuzan, president of the Ukrainian Center for Cooperation and Security (USCC), notes in an exchange of messages that “the country is not in the best position to start negotiations at the moment. Today, Russia has the initiative on the battlefield.” However, Kuzan, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, believes that changes will occur in the fall, as the potential of Russia’s summer campaign begins to fade. “Russia is now at the peak of its powers,” the analyst continues. “While, on the contrary, Western partners are opening factories in Ukraine and providing additional assistance, and (Kiev’s) own defense-industrial complex is gaining capacity.”

There are both bright and dark sides to the first part of the plan that Zelensky outlines. While Ukrainian society has shown resilience during the Russian offensive on the country’s energy infrastructure, the damage to the sector has been enormous. Since March, Moscow has been shelling the electricity system, both thermal power plants — essential after the reduction of nuclear power in the occupied territories — and simple substations. According to recent estimates by Ukrainian officials for the Financial TimesUkraine is generating half the energy it did before the invasion. The damage to the country’s economy and the power outages experienced by citizens are taking their toll.

Also in the realm of chiaroscuro is the return of military personnel captured by the enemy and of children forcibly deported to Russia. Since May alone, Ukraine has recovered 259 soldiers in three groups. Russia has received the same number of prisoners of war in return. The military exchanges are proceeding at a good pace, while only 388 of the 20,000 children identified by the government as transferred to occupied territory or directly to Russia have returned.

Thanks to the pressure exerted in the Black Sea, through bombardments and naval drones fired at the Russian fleet, Kiev’s cargo ships were able to return to the Bosphorus and regain the pre-2022 level of Ukrainian grain exports.

Even if these points of Zelenskyy’s plan come to fruition, it would be met, barring a major surprise, with a flat refusal by the Kremlin to attend the peace summit. Russia’s participation is not only desirable for Kiev; at the meeting in Switzerland, powers such as China and Brazil, currently highly relevant to the Ukrainian government, were absent, as there were no envoys from Moscow. A few hours before the Burgenstock summit began, Russian President Vladimir Putin set as conditions for the start of talks the recognition of the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson (none of which are fully under the control of the Russian military) as Russian territory, as well as the demilitarization of Ukraine and blocking its bid to join NATO. These three red lines, according to the Institute for the Study of War, would amount to a request for “capitulation.” On July 12, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin insisted that Moscow would not attend a second round of peace talks, calling the Zelenskiy formula an “ultimatum” and a “dead end.”

“There is a lack of understanding and constructive attitude on the part of the Russians,” notes Serhii Kuzan of the USCC. “They are not guided by the basic principles of negotiations, but rather set ultimatums that cannot be fulfilled in the case of capitulation or surrender of territories. Ukraine talks about a step-by-step solution to this military problem, and the Russians speak the language of manipulation in various forms in order to legalize the illegal occupation of Ukrainian territories, lift sanctions and stop arms shipments to Ukraine. They want to gain time to wait for a change in the political situation in Europe and the world, in order to attack even more with new troops. They hope that the world will get tired of what they call the ‘Ukrainian crisis.’”

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