On July 18 and 19, Russian forces carried out limited missile attacks on Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down an Iskander ballistic missile that Russian forces had fired from occupied Crimea on July 18, targeting the Odessa region.(73) The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 19 that Russian forces had carried out two Iskander-M ballistic missile attacks on Chuhuiv, in the Kharkiv region.(74) The Ukrainian Khortytsia Forces Group reported on July 19 that Ukrainian forces had shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft flying in the direction of Pokrovsk (Avdiivka).(75)

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• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again stressed the importance of reaching an international consensus on continuing peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban appears to be bolstering various Russian intelligence actions as he attempts to position himself as a potential future mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
• The new United Kingdom (UK) Defence Secretary John Healey stated on 19 July that Ukraine may use UK-supplied weapons to attack military targets in Russia, despite earlier reports that the UK had not given Ukraine permission to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to attack military targets in Russia.
• The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political consequences of the return of Russian veterans from the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian government is reportedly considering stricter measures to directly censor critical voices on Russian social media.
• Russian authorities continue to propose tougher migration laws, while Russian ultra-nationalists continue to spout xenophobic rhetoric and complain about the Russian government’s perceived permissive migration policies.
• Russian troops have recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk and Avdiivka.
• Russian efforts to integrate personnel serving with Russian forces in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military bureaucracy continue to be plagued by disarray.

Russian forces continued their offensive operations north of the city of Kharkov, near Hlyboke, and northeast of the city of Kharkov, near Vovchansk, on July 18-19, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.(29) The Ukrainian Kharkov Force Group reported that elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District (EMD)) and the 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th Army Corps (AC), Baltic Fleet) are regrouping near Hlyboke and that the Russian military command is preparing to deploy assault groups from the Russian 128th Motorized Rifle Regiment (6th Combined Arms Army (CAA), Leningrad Military District (LMD)) into the battle near Vovchansk.(30)

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on 19 July, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Nevske (northwest of Kreminna), but ISW observed no visual confirmation of this claim.(33) Fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Pishchane and in the direction of Novoosynove; northwest of Kreminna near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske and Terny; west of Kreminna near Torske; and southwest of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest area on July 18-19.(34) Elements of the Russian 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA), Moscow Military District (MMD)) are reportedly still operating in the direction of Kupyansk.(35)

Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out an ATAMCS missile attack on the city of Luhansk on July 19. Kremlin newswire BAG and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces fired three ATACMS missiles at the city of Luhansk.(36) Geolocated images published on July 19 show the remains of a probable ATACMS missile near the former Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School.(37) The head of the Ukrainian military administration of the Luhansk region, Artem Lysohor, and the Russian opposition channel Astra enhanced images of a suspected smoke plume in the city of Luhansk, near the flight school.(38)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again stressed the importance of reaching an international consensus on continuing peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky stated during a July 18 interview with the BBC that the world must reach a common consensus on a possible end state for the war in Ukraine and present this consensus to Russia to encourage Russia to come to the negotiating table. (1) Zelensky added that diplomacy will be an important element in restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and that Ukraine does not necessarily have to liberate all of its territory “by force,” but that it must significantly weaken Russia’s position on the battlefield in order to develop a stronger negotiating position for future peace negotiations. Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have consistently presented their vision for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, which includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and long-term security guarantees for Ukraine’s sovereignty and national security against future aggression.(2) Ukrainian officials have not expressed willingness to cede territory to Russia in exchange for peace, and Zelensky’s statements are consistent with this position.(3) Ukrainian officials continue to indicate their willingness to engage in good faith peace negotiations with Russian representatives on the basis of Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity, and international law, and Kremlin officials continue to portray such negotiations as bizarre and an “ultimatum” and call for a solution tantamount to Ukrainian surrender.(4)

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