Poland already had a fence to deter migrants with Russian and Belarusian visas who have been approaching the borders since late June 2021. Now it wants to create a “Maginot Line,” dubbed the “Eastern Shield,” a series of fortifications along the border with Belarus, a Russian satellite state, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The massive project, 700 kilometers long and several hundred meters wide, is expected to be completed in 2028.

The future militarized line will complement the wall and watchtowers erected to stop the flow of migrants sent by the Belarusian and Russian authorities to Polish territory. Behind these initial barriers, the Ministry of Defense plans to build a berm, anti-tank ditches, minefields, concrete obstacles in the shape of hedgehogs, bunkers and secret weapons storage facilities. The defenses will blend into the natural landscape of this wild region: marshes, floodplains and dense forests.

Tank ditches and advanced technology

Modern surveillance technology – acoustic, electromagnetic and visual sensors, anti-drone systems and satellite surveillance – will complete the fortifications. The total cost is estimated at 2.4 billion euros. The government of the new pro-European prime minister, Donald Tusk, hopes to get financial support from Brussels to defend the European Union’s eastern flank. South Korea, a rising power in the arms industry, and the United Kingdom could provide technical expertise.

The project is part of a comprehensive reinforcement of Poland’s defenses, which has been underway since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland already allocates 4% of its GDP to its military budget, with the aim of building the largest land army in Europe. “With the ‘Eastern Shield’, Poles want to deter possible Russian aggression. This is an unprecedented program in European history since 1945,” noted Amélie Zima, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, who recently published a report on the subject.

A consensual project

The project has not caused much controversy in Poland, despite the route running through Europe’s last primeval forest and farmers’ fields. A rare dissenting voice, former prime ministerial adviser Roman Kuzniar, questioned the strategic usefulness of such a system, comparing it to the “Maginot Line” built in France in the 1930s. Military officials, however, defended the concept, which would prevent surprise attacks, reduce enemy mobility and speed up the defenders’ response thanks to stockpiles of weapons.

This plan is part of the rapid militarization of the EU’s eastern border that is being observed in the Baltic states. On the front line against Russia, Estonia plans to build more than 600 bunkers, barriers, dragon’s teeth and ditches along 200 km of its border. Neighboring Latvia also wants to dig a bomb shelter under every building in its capital Riga. These two countries and Lithuania have formed a common defense zone.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO forces had already strengthened their military presence in the region by positioning multinational battalions in smaller numbers. The United States opened its first permanent garrison on Polish soil, where 10,000 soldiers were stationed. “Poles and Balts fear that part of their territory could be occupied in the event of an attack,” Zima said. “NATO’s deterrence is no longer considered sufficient.”

The rise of the Polish army

The Polish army wants to increase its soldiers from 190,000 to 300,000 in the coming years, making it the largest army in Europe. However, this ambitious goal faces challenges in terms of recruitment.

Poland wants to have a force of 17,000 soldiers (currently 6,000) on its eastern border, including 9,000 reserve soldiers, who can be deployed within 48 hours.

Warsaw has rapidly expanded its military, with a defense budget of about 4% of GDP, the highest of any NATO country, including billions of dollars in military equipment purchases, mainly from the United States and South Korea.