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Is the end of the war in Ukraine near?

There are different assessments of the peace summit on Ukraine, the so-called “peace formula” plan of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Switzerland, but certain categorical statements can be drawn that will determine the course of future peace negotiations.

The summit managed to bring together almost half of the world’s sovereign states, members of the UN, with some influential states such as India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil and even the Vatican didn’t. sign the joint communiqué.

Russia was not invited to the summit, which is why China did not participate either.

The summit in Switzerland can be seen not only as a test of international support for the Ukrainian ‘peace formula’, but also as the first global meeting on ending the war in Ukraine. It is important that it was led by Kiev.

Peace plans and revolutions at the front

To boost support for Ukraine’s plan to end the war, Putin outlined his terms for a ceasefire ahead of the summit in Switzerland. The bottom line is that Moscow will stop its aggression if Ukraine withdraws from the newly annexed territories – the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

None of the areas mentioned, through which Putin changed the Constitution of the Russian Federation, are fully controlled by Russia, and the mass death of Russian soldiers on the front is now regarded by Moscow as a war of liberation.

What is Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’? It was proposed in the fall of 2022, in the midst of the euphoria of the Ukrainian liberation of the Kharkov and Kherson regions, as the Russian army rushed headlong into the fields.

Zelensky’s peace formula was essentially a maximalist ten-point plan to defeat Russia. He predicted Russia’s withdrawal from Ukrainian territories, the trial of the Russian army for war crimes, the payment of compensation to Ukraine. Even when Russia’s defeat in Ukraine was not impossible, the primary plan envisioned a near capitulation of Imperial Russia.

After the Ukrainian formula, various plans for the solution of the war were put on the table: Chinese, South American, Vatican, Turkish…

Over time, the situation at the front changed. The Ukrainians tried in vain to launch a counter-offensive, and Russia took the initiative and launched a new attack since the autumn of last year.

As the US and EU moved closer to the elections, the mood in the West shifted again towards the war in Ukraine. Washington created a stalemate in the supply of weapons, which directly caused the advance of the Russian army and the decline in morale among the Ukrainians. Many wondered if this was pressure on Kiev to sit at the negotiating table?

Lowering the bar

Zelensky wants to maintain his ‘peace formula’ and decides to lower the bar in unfavorable circumstances. China initially took part in the discussion about Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’, only to drop out and provide Russia with equally intensive economic and political support.

Kiev does not give up its formula, it changes it significantly to gain the widest possible support and agrees to compromises to leave only three of the ten points included in the final communiqué, namely: nuclear security, the exchange of prisoners ( and the return of children) and the Black Sea Humanitarian Food Corridor.

That is why the cynical assessment of Zelenskiy’s formula is that Russia’s capitulation was demanded and the communiqué was agreed to, which does not even mention the withdrawal of the Russian army from Ukraine. Nevertheless, Kiev received the support of a large number of countries, which it can probably count on in the future.

The biggest weakness of the summit in Switzerland was the absence of American President Biden. He saved himself not only for the presidential elections, but also for the peace processes on Ukraine, which are yet to come.

Beijing could influence a quicker end to the war in Ukraine, but the conflict is not harming the country. Moreover, he got a huge, conceited and useful vassal from the Kremlin. The war in Ukraine affects the poorest countries of the South the most, but is also a way to establish a vertical line between them.

Europe is also affected by this war, as are the Western Balkans and the countries of the former Yugoslavia, which surprisingly rarely unanimously supported Zelensky’s formula.

Although the war in Ukraine would ideally end before the US presidential elections, their favorite is waiting for a more serious peace process, assuming Trump’s victory. Until autumn, it is important to position yourself well, present all peace plans and count the countries on whose side.

(Al Jazeera)

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